Gold Forecast. 2012. Tight Supply. Increased Demand. So it’s a Good Time to Buy Gold.
We’ll take a look at the reasons there will be increased demand for gold in a minute but let’s start by taking a look at some big players in the market. In past blogs, we’ve mentioned that Middle Eastern and Asian countries are big buyers of gold.
- Qatar has been buying more than a ton of gold every month for three years.
- Russia recently bought more than 15 tons of gold from its mines.
- The Reserve Bank of India bought 200 tons of gold the IMF sold.
- Even tiny Mauritius bought 2 tons of gold in November.
- And then China plans to buy gold: approximately 6,000 tons in five years.
It’s not easy to find this sheer quantity of gold. The supply of gold remains low. New mines are opening but it takes at least five years for a mine to produce at significant levels. With high demand, low supply, and a volatile global market, there’s a good reason that many commodities analysts are predicting significantly higher gold prices for 2012.
- UBS has forecast $2,075 an ounce.
- Barclays has forecast $2,000 an ounce ($35 an ounce for silver).
- Morgan Stanley predicts a range between $1,819 an ounce and $2,085 an ounce.
- HSBC predicts $2,025 an ounce.
- TD Securities predicts $1,975 an ounce.
With the price of gold hovering around the $1,700 an ounce mark for several weeks, it may be a good time to buy gold.
Five Factors Pushing Demand for Gold
- The financial crisis in Europe over the Eurozone—which looks increasingly likely to lead to printing money…and inflation.
- Central banks are buying gold as they move away from the dollar.
- There’s strong demand for gold for jewellery in China, India, and the Middle East.
- Institutional investors may start buying gold—especially if global equity markets remain stagnant.
- The spectre of inflation—not just in Europe but all over the world.
With gold prices at approximately $200 an ounce below the high in September and many major financial institutions predicting prices over $2,000 an ounce in 2012, now could be a good time to buy gold.
In the short term, it will be extremely important for people who are considering buying gold to pay close attention to the news coming out of Europe.
“We expect gold prices to increase because of fear of a Eurozone implosion,” said Dennis Hynes, chief market strategist at R.W. Pressprich, told Bloomberg. “The only currency that’s stable in this type of situation is gold.”